Octa Provides Expert Analysis for 2024 for Global Economic Trends and Gold Prices

Octa Provides Expert Analysis for 2024 for Global Economic Trends and Gold Prices

New Delhi [India]: According to many analysts’ forecasts, the price of gold may increase in 2024. Octa explains in the article what factors will influence the dynamics of the gold price and what will happen to the market this year.

Gold is trading above $2,000 per ounce in early 2024. Analysts expect that even later in the year, gold prices may remain above $2,000 per ounce, reaching new historical highs. Among the factors favouring this are geopolitical uncertainty, the likely weakening of the U.S. dollar, and potential interest rate cuts. But before relying on these factors in the future, we must understand how they have influenced the past.

A new scenario of gold price dynamics

For the past 90 years, the value of gold has depended primarily on the volume of transactions between the Western and Eastern markets. Western countries determined supply and demand, while Eastern countries acted as counterparties to the transaction. Thus, when the volumes of physical gold purchased by Great Britain or Switzerland increased, its price grew, and vice versa. As a result, gold moved from the West to the East and back synchronously with the price decreasing or increasing.

The second factor that has historically influenced the price is the relationship between the price of gold and the real yield on U.S. government bonds. When the real yield decreased, bonds lost their appeal, and investors moved into gold. Once the trend reversed and real yields began to rise, investors returned to bonds.

However, since the end of 2022, both patterns have failed. The U.S. ten-year bond yield rose to 4.33%, above the 2022 highs, beating a 15-year record. Despite expectations, this didn’t lower the price of gold, which instead rose from November 2022 to August 2023 by 16%, from $1,643 to $1,954 per ounce.

The correlation between gold transaction volumes and the gold price also stopped working. Since the third quarter of 2022, the UK and Switzerland have been Netto-exporters of gold, i.e. sellers. According to the historical paradigm, this should also have been a reason for the price of gold to fall. However, as we can see, this is not happening. Thus, the West has not significantly influenced the pricing of precious metals.

What affects gold in 2024?

Escalating geopolitical conflicts are causing gold to rise in value. Due to the geopolitical events of 2022, dollar assets have become more risky for many countries. Central banks in the Global South, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East have been actively pursuing a policy of building up the gold part of foreign exchange reserves since the end of 2022. According to a World Gold Council (WGC) report, central banks bought 800 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of 2023, up 14% year-on-year. Excess demand from central banks has boosted the value of gold by 10 per cent in 2023.

‘It is the central banks’ purchases of gold that will act as the main driver of growth in 2024′, said Kar Yong Ang, the Octa financial market analyst. ‘If the trend continues and the level of gold reserves moves towards an average of 40% of the gold composition in reserves, that would mean an additional $3.2 trillion in the asset–a 25% rise in 2025, which would correspond to a price of $2,500 an ounce’, he added.

Gold has also seen another rise since the beginning of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: since October 2023, it has added more than 8%. Hence, we can conclude that any aggravation in geopolitics will have a positive impact on gold.

The stabilisation of inflation will continue to support gold quotes. In 2022, global inflation reached its highest levels in decades. However, it is also a fact that inflation passed its peak at the end of 2023. Most analysts believe inflationary pressures will continue to ease in 2024.

‘Traditionally, the gold price has been negatively correlated with the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate, the lower the interest rates on government bonds. As a result, the relative attractiveness of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold increases’, said Kar Yong Ang.

Developing economies de-dollarisation. Investors see gold as an alternative means of building savings and protection against inflation and currency risk. Demand for gold is increasing because Brazil, Russia, India, and China (members of BRICKS) seek ways to improve their currency independence.

The main factors affecting gold’s price are inflation, rising demand from central banks, de-dollarisation of developing economies, microeconomic situation, and geopolitics. The combination of these factors will create conditions for the growth of gold price in 2024–in the first half of the year, the cost of the precious metal may exceed $2,200 per troy ounce. In the second half of the year, the upward trend in gold is likely to continue, and gold may show a price of $2,300 per ounce, so the average price in 2024 will be $2,170.

Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services already utilised by clients from 180 countries with more than 42 million trading accounts. Free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools they provide help clients reach their investment goals.

The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.

Octa has also won more than 70 awards since its foundation, including the ‘Best Educational Broker 2023’ award from Global Forex Awards and the ‘Best Global Broker Asia 2022’ award from International Business Magazine.

Uniform Trader uses the power of business to make a difference in their community by advocating for social change

Uniform Trader uses the power of business to make a difference in their community by advocating for social change

The Mumbai-based family business, Uniform Trader Inc, is doing new things for the world of business ethics. Its contributions during the Covid-19 Pandemic, providing medical kits and other protective gear to doctors and healthcare workers, helped deal with the surge of hospital patients. As society progresses, we need to work together; businesses’ contributions are welcomed, and they inspire the community as a whole. When Uniform Trader started taking orders for preparing medical uniforms, it supplied hundreds of orders for protective gear like surgeon caps, scrub suits, surgical gowns. NGOs and government authorities have also recognised Uniform Trader for its relentless efforts to support and serve. The firm considers its immense responsibility to impoverished families and organises programs to uplift the economically weaker sections of society. Uniform Trader, a brand that helped thousands of healthcare workers with medical equipment and supplies, continues its efforts by pledging 10 per cent of its profits to charitable causes. In addition, the company has launched education programs for children belonging to economically weaker sections. It ensures payment of fees, uniforms, and other stationery items to support their quality education.

Second Generation Entrepreneur and head of the company, Mr Hitesh Gadilkar, shared his vision for the company and said, “We are committed to outdo the best and innovate to adopt sustainability while serving our customers and performing our duty to social causes”. Currently, he is leading an education program for poor children and arranging everything they need for success despite their situation: food, clothes and hygiene products; classes on critical thinking, communication skills, add math – so they can be prepared for life outside school. He is on a mission to support every child in India to have access to quality education. Several customers have come forward to share this mission, and the efforts have also started showing results. There is a feeling among customers that their purchase with Uniform Trader is like contributing to the education of a poor child.

Small-scale family businesses can contribute effectively to serving social causes and be a pillar of strength for the entire social ecosystem. However, it is up to the brands to prioritise their motives and be socially responsible while protecting their financial interests. Brands like Uniform Trader have shown a way to be socially sensitive and reliable in business operations. Such companies are likely an inspiration to many other startups and established businesses to meet the social challenges India faces in local and global environments. Social Contributions are recognised and respected by potential customers of the brands, and it adds to the sustainability of the business. A great example of a socially caring and employee-supportive brand is the Tata Conglomerate, one of the founding pillars of independent India. It is undoubtedly an efficient way to share your success with social and pay back to those who helped the business reach such heights.

Combining brands to support the economy and serve social interests is a great way to build a robust societal foundation. The brands are benefitted from their social image, and their charitable deeds are paid back from what they get from the social ecosystem. Thus, it is a chain reaction that supports the outcome and enhances the input for boosting the results in the next cycle. For example, uniform Trader, a family business firm, shares a bond with society and contributes compassionately to the well-being of impoverished children. This engagement with social causes establishes a mutual relationship between the customers and the brands.

Family businesses like Uniform Trader maintain their legacy of serving society and valuing customer service more than purely financial gains. Calamities could not deviate Indian growth story because of the collective efforts of our industries and their ethics. Uniform Trader is an inspirational story for many other businesses to think ethically and produce sustainably. Management of Uniform Traders Inc. considers themselves lucky to contribute during COVID and serve the nation. They endeavour to continue their social service while providing their clients with the best goods and services.

The challenges of illiteracy, poverty and unemployment are critical impediments to the growth of our nation. Contribution of all sectors, especially industries and businesses, are most welcome to fight against these challenges. It is the collective might of professionals from different fields that India is progressing rapidly as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. But, the MSME sector of India and socially responsible companies like Uniform Trader strengthen the foundations of our fast-growing economy.

Join the movement for socially responsible business practices and support Uniform Trader Inc. Visit www.uniformtrader.com to learn more about the company’s products and how you can make a difference through your purchasing power.